By Emmanuel Elebeke & Elizabeth Adegbesan
Nigeria’s annual Gross Domestic Product (GDP), rose by 3.46 percent in the third quarter (Q3) of 2024 representing a 0.19 percentage point rise from 3.16 percent recorded in the second quarter of the year, Q2’24, and 0.92 percentage point higher than the 2.54 percent growth recorded in the corresponding period of 2023, Q3’23.
The National Bureau of Statistics, NBS, report shows that the improvement was driven mainly by the services sector of the economy.
The Bureau stated: “Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 3.46 percent (year-on-year) in real terms in the third quarter of 2024.
“This growth rate is higher than the 2.54 percent recorded in the third quarter of 2023 and higher than the second quarter of 2024 growth of 3.19 percent.
“The performance of the GDP in the third quarter of 2024 was driven mainly by the Services sector, which recorded a growth of 5.19 percent and contributed 53.58 percent to the aggregate GDP.
“The agriculture sector grew by 1.14 percent, from the growth of 1.3 percent recorded in the third quarter of 2023.
“The growth of the industry sector was 2.18 percent, an improvement from 0.46 percentage points recorded in the third quarter of 2023.
“In terms of share of the GDP, the services sector contributed more to the aggregate GDP in the third quarter of 2024 compared to the corresponding quarter of 2023.”
According to NBS, the economy in the third quarter of 2024, recorded an average daily oil production of 1.47 million barrels per day (mbpd), higher than the daily average production of 1.45 mbpd recorded in the same period of 2023 by 0.02 mbpd and higher than the 1.41 mbpd recorded in second quarter of 2024 by 0.07mbpd.
NBS Stated: “The real growth of the oil sector was 5.17 percent (year-on-year) in Q3 2024, indicating an increase of 6.02 percentage points relative to the rate recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2023 (-0.85 percent).
Growth decreased by 4.98 percentage points when compared to Q2’24 which was 10.15 percent.
“On a quarter-on-quarter basis, the oil sector recorded a growth rate of 7.39% in Q3 2024.
“The Oil sector contributed 5.5 percent to the total real GDP in Q3 2024, up from the figure recorded in the corresponding period of 2023 and down from the preceding quarter, where it contributed 5.48 percent and 5.7 percent respectively.
“The non-oil sector grew by 3.37 percent in real terms during the reference quarter (Q3 2024).
“ This rate was higher by 0.62 percentage points compared to the rate recorded in the same quarter of 2023 which was 2.75 percent and higher than the 2.8 percent recorded in the second quarter of 2024. “This sector was driven in the third quarter of 2024 mainly by Financial and Insurance (Financial Institutions); Information and Communication (Telecommunications); Agriculture (Crop production); Transportation and Storage (Road Transport); Trade; and Construction, accounting for positive GDP growth”, NBS said.
Commenting on the development, analysts at CardinalStone Research said: “Overall, we estimate that the service sector will remain the cornerstone of GDP growth, underpinning our full financial year 2024 estimate of 3.2 percent against 2.7 percent in 2023.”
On their part, analysts at Afrinvest Plc said: “Trailing, the industries and agriculture sector growth culminated at 2.2 percent and 1.1 percent sequentially, down from 3.5 percent and 1.4 percent in Q2’24.
“We flag that the slowdown in the agricultural sector growth underscores the currently elevated food inflation rate in October 2024 at 39.2 percent. “Likewise, we linked the slowdown in industries sector growth momentum to the reverberating effect of the increase in energy prices (PMS price rose from N750.00/litre in Q2 to N1,060/litre in Q3) and further pressure on the FX rate in the quarter – the NAFEM and parallel market rates fell by 2.4 percent and 10.4 percent in Q3 to N1,541.94/$ and N1,680.00/$ respectively.”
Vanguard
