Net foreign exchange inflow into the Nigerian economy fell by 18.3 per cent, year-on-year (YoY), to $48.1 billion in the nine months ended September 2025, from $58.8 billion recorded in the corresponding period of 2024.
The decline was driven by a sharper 15 per cent YoY drop in foreign exchange inflows, which outweighed a 12.2 per cent YoY reduction in foreign exchange outflows during the period.
Analysis of Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) data on foreign exchange flows for the third quarter of 2025 showed that total forex inflows into the economy declined to $83.71 billion in the nine-month period, compared with $99.44 billion in the same period of 2024. Similarly, foreign exchange outflows fell to $35.65 billion in 9M’25, from $40.61 billion in the corresponding period of 2024.
A breakdown of the inflow data showed that forex inflows through the CBN dropped sharply by 30 per cent YoY to $28.72 billion in 9M’25, from $40.15 billion in 9M’24. Inflows through autonomous sources also declined, though at a slower pace of 6.8 per cent YoY, to $54.99 billion from $59.29 billion.
On the outflow side, forex outflows through the CBN fell by 18.8 per cent YoY to $25.68 billion in 9M’25, from $32.16 billion a year earlier. However, outflows through autonomous sources rose by 18 per cent YoY to $9.97 billion, compared with $8.44 billion in 9M’24.
As a result, net forex flow through the CBN declined steeply by 62 per cent YoY to $3.04 billion, from $7.99 billion in the corresponding period of 2024. Net flows through autonomous sources also dropped by 11.5 per cent YoY to $45.02 billion from $50.85 billion.
IMTO inflows weaken autonomous supply
Further analysis showed that inflows from International Money Transfer Operators (IMTOs), a key component of autonomous foreign exchange supply, also weakened during the period, reflecting pressures on diaspora remittances.
CBN data showed that IMTO inflows declined by 15.7 per cent YoY to $3.22 billion in the nine months ended September 2025, from $3.82 billion recorded in the corresponding period of 2024.
The decline was recorded across all three quarters of 2025. In the first quarter, IMTO inflows fell by 18 per cent YoY to $888.3 million, from $1.08 billion in Q1’24. This was followed by a 6.5 per cent YoY decline in the second quarter to $1.18 billion, compared with $1.26 billion a year earlier. In the third quarter, inflows dropped more sharply by 22 per cent YoY to $1.15 billion, from $1.48 billion in Q3’24.
The sustained decline in IMTO inflows contributed to the overall moderation in autonomous forex inflows, despite policy measures aimed at attracting diaspora remittances through formal channels.
Q3 rebound offers mild relief
Further analysis showed that net forex inflow into the economy recorded a 6.4 per cent quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) decline in Q1’25 and a 4.1 per cent QoQ decline in Q2’25. However, the downward trend was reversed in Q3’25, when net foreign exchange inflow rose by 20 per cent QoQ.
According to the CBN in its Q3’25 Quarterly Economic Report, “The economy recorded a higher net foreign exchange inflow, driven by lower outflow through the Bank.”
The CBN stated that net foreign exchange inflow rose to $17.46 billion in Q3’25, compared with $14.46 billion in the preceding quarter. Aggregate foreign exchange inflow declined marginally by 4.17 per cent to $26.27 billion from $27.41 billion in Q2’25, while foreign exchange outflow fell sharply by 32.01 per cent to $8.80 billion from $12.94 billion.
VANGUARD.
