The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) has stated that the average price of food and other commodities recorded a decline between the months of March and April.
According to the bureau, this led to a marginal drop of 0.52% in headline inflation to 23.71% in April relative to the March 2025 headline inflation rate of 24.23%.
The bureau added that the inflation figure, when compared to April 2024 was 9.99% lower, even though the 33.69% recorded was based on the old methodology used in computing it.
“This shows that the headline inflation rate (year-on-year basis) decreased in April 2025 compared to the same month in the preceding year (i.e., April 2024), though with a different base year, November 2009 = 100.
“Furthermore, on a month-on-month basis, the headline inflation rate in April 2025 was 1.86%, which was 2.04% lower than the rate recorded in March 2025 (3.90%). This means that in April 2025, the rate of increase in the average price level is lower than the rate of increase in the average price level in March 2025.
Drop in food inflation
It added that the food inflation rate in April 2025 was 21.26% on a year-on-year basis.
“This was 19.27% points lower compared to the rate recorded in April 2024 (40.53%).
It said the significant decline in the food annual inflation figure is technically due to the change in the base year.
But on a month-on-month basis, the food inflation rate in April 2025 was 2.06%, down by 0.12% compared to March 2025 (2.18%). The decrease can be attributed to the rate of decrease in the average prices of maize (corn) flour, wheat grain, okra dried, yam flour, soya beans, rice, bambara and brown beans, etc.
The average annual rate of food inflation for the twelve months ending April 2025 over the previous twelve-month average was 31.43%, which was 1.31% points lower compared with the average annual rate of change recorded in April 2024 (32.74%).
On a year-on-year basis, the urban inflation rate in April 2025 was 24.29%. On a month-on-month basis, the urban inflation rate was 1.18% in April 2025, a decrease of 2.78% compared to March 2025 (3.96%).
The rural inflation rate in April 2025 was 22.83% on a year-on-year basis. On a month-on-month basis, the rural inflation rate in April 2025 was 3.56%, a fall of 0.17% compared to March 2025 (3.73%)
Core inflation, which excludes the prices of volatile agricultural produce and energy, stood at 23.39% in April 2025 on a year-on-year basis.
On a month-on-month basis, the core inflation rate was 1.34% in April 2025, down by 2.39% compared to March 2025 (3.73%).
The inflation rate of the newly introduced sub-index is: Farm produce: 2.64%, energy: 9.21%, services: 3.44%, and goods: 3.89%.
At the divisional level, the three major contributors to the headline inflation were food and non-alcoholic beverages: 9.49%, restaurants & accommodation services: 3.06%, and transport: 2.53%; while the least contributors were alcoholic beverages, tobacco and narcotics: 0.09%, recreation, sport and culture: 0.07%.
The all-item index for April 2025, on a year-on-year basis, was highest in Enugu (35.98%), Kebbi (35.13%), and Niger (34.85%), while Ondo (13.43%), Cross River (17.11%), Kwara (17.28%) recorded the lowest rise in headline inflation on a year-on-year basis.
On a month-on-month basis, April 2025 recorded the highest increases in Sokoto (16.26%), Nasarawa (16.02%), Niger (14.74%), while Oyo (-6.45%), Osun (-4.54%) and Ondo (-3.44%) recorded declines in month-on-month inflation.
“State-level analyses of the food index in April 2025 show that food inflation on a year-on-year basis was highest in Benue (51.76%), Ekiti (34.05%), Kebbi (33.82%), while Ebonyi (7.19%), Adamawa (9.52%), and Ogun (9.91%) recorded the slowest rise in food inflation on a year-on-year basis. On a month-on-month basis, however, April 2025 food inflation was highest in Benue (25.59%), Ekiti (16.73%), and Yobe (13.92%), while Ebonyi (-14.43%), Kano (-11.37%) and Ogun (-7.06%) recorded declines in food inflation on a month-on-month basis.
Inflation signals policy stabilisation but… – Expert
Prof Muhammad Mainoma, former Vice Chancellor, Nasarawa State University and Fellow of Capital Market Academics of Nigeria, said for the broader economy, the inflation figure signals that policy stabilisation efforts are gaining some traction.
He, however, said sustained and coordinated fiscal-monetary reforms are still required to consolidate the gain.
He added that easing in inflation is not yet a turning point, but it is a hopeful marker for Nigeria’s economy, adding that for the equities market, it may strengthen the case for long-term investment in growth-sensitive sectors.
“The recent easing of headline inflation to 23.71% in April 2025, as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), is a positive signal, albeit modest, in the context of Nigeria’s ongoing macroeconomic adjustment efforts. From my perspective, there are several key implications for the Nigerian equities market and the broader economy:
“A decline in inflation, even marginal, tends to boost investor sentiment, particularly in the equities market, as it suggests some easing in cost pressures and a potential shift in monetary policy stance. Consumer-facing sectors (e.g., FMCGs) may benefit from improved purchasing power, translating into better earnings and valuation potential.
“However, at 23.71%, inflation remains significantly above the Central Bank’s comfort zone, so interest rates may still remain tight, which could limit liquidity available for stock market investments in the short term.
He said a sustained easing trend could encourage the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to pause further rate hikes, or even consider rate adjustments that favour growth, especially in the non-oil sector.
“Investors will closely monitor CBN’s next move, as it has direct implications on portfolio flows and bond-equity allocations.
He went on to say 23.71% is still high and any reduction brings psychological relief to households facing months of eroded purchasing power.
“For businesses, it may signal a gradual reduction in cost of raw materials and transport, improving operational efficiency and profitability.
“Lower inflation, if sustained, improves business planning confidence, encourages capital expenditure, and supports credit expansion. It may also support the informal sector and SMEs, who are disproportionately affected by inflation volatility.”
DAILY TRUST.
